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Foredrag og samtaler

How First-Time Eligibility in Regional and European Elections Influences Electoral Behavior


Alexander Verdoes, forsker ved Institutt for Politikk og Forvaltning, vil presentere analyser av innføringen av flernivådemokrati og dets betydning for velgeratferd.

Alexander Verdoes er forsker på det norske ESS-teamet ved Institutt for politikk. I denne presentasjonen kombinerer han et nytt datasett om regionale, nasjonale og europeiske valg med individdata fra ESS for 31 europeiske land for å undersøke hvordan flernivådemokrati har påvirket velgeratferd. Presentasjonen har tittelen «How First-Time Eligibility in Regional and European Elections Influences Electoral Behavior».

Presentasjonen blir på engelsk. 

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Sammendrag

Most European countries have become full-fledged multilevel democracies, allowing citizens to vote in subnational, national, and European elections. Yet how the introduction of multilevel democracy has influenced electoral behavior remains underexplored. This study examines how the type of election in which voters are first eligible to vote affects their likelihood of turning out and their party choice in subsequent national elections. It is expected that voters who first obtain voting rights in European or low-salience regional elections are less likely to participate in later national elections and more likely to vote for small and opposition parties, as well as for parties that mobilize voters based on regional or European issues. This is because they may develop distinct habits of non-voting or specific party preferences due to the second-order nature of these non-national elections.

Using a novel dataset on voting age requirements for national, regional, and European elections in 31 European countries, combined with individual-level data from the European Social Survey (ESS), the analyses show that first-time eligibility in European elections reduces the likelihood of turning out in national elections by about 1.5 percentage points compared to those first enfranchised in national elections. These voters are also more likely to vote for a Eurosceptic party. First-time eligibility in regional elections does not depress turnout in national elections, regardless of the salience of regional elections. These findings demonstrate that multilevel democracy can have a lasting impact on electoral behavior across electoral arenas.