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My current research is concerned with the basin-scale ocean circulation and air-sea interaction in the Arctic-Atlantic region and how this might change in the future. My work involves a unique combination of observational work and the use of numerical models. Through my research and publications, I have established myself as a central actor in the field of Arctic-Atlantic climate dynamics, and in particular on the ocean’s role in climate variability.

I am also a researcher leader at the .

Når klimaendringer blir sikkerhetspolitikk. Presentation. Varmere, Våtere, Villere, 13.03.2026.

Podcast: Hva skjer med Golfstrømmen? Nysgjerrige Norge, 14.12.2025.  

Why the Gulf Stream never stops. Popular science talk. Ocean Science Bar, Bergen. 29.01.2026. 

The Gulf Stream and AMOC (video in Norwegian).  

Podcast from the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research: AMOC.  

Popular science article: What is happening to the Arctic sea ice in winter? https://www.sciencenorway.no/arctic-climate-change-ice/what-is-happening-to-the-arctic-sea-ice-in-winter/2351334

Popular science article: Rekordlite is og økt skipstrafikk i Arktis: Hvordan forbereder vi oss på fremtiden? High North News 26.01.2021.

Podcast from the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research: Arven etter Nansen

Presenter in the concert Next Step - Ocean. Part of a collaborative concert series between the University of Bergen and the Philharmonic Orchestra. Audience number: 1300. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y19aJEIcO14&t=7s

Popular science article: Klimavarsling - en arv etter Nansen. https://www.nordisktrykk.no/FLIP/2402-UMB-flip/mobile/index.html

Popular science article: Sjøisen i Arktis kan vokse selv om verden blir varmere. 

Popular science article: Isen i Barentshavet er i ferd med å forsvinne: https://www.aftenposten.no/viten/i/B8vKE/Isen-i-Barentshavet-er-i-ferd-med-a-forsvinne

Popular science article: Tror på mer is i Barentshavet denne vinteren: https://forskning.no/meninger/kronikk/2015/01/svalbard-kommer-ut-av-isen

Popular science article: Havis på rømmen. Klima, CICERO, 2014.

Popular science article: Nansen fikk rett. ”Forskning viser at...” Dagens Næringsliv, 25.08.2012.

Guest lecturer, University Centre in Svalbard (UNIS). AGF-214, Polar Ocean Climate (2026-)

Polar Oceanography (GEOF338), Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Norway. Teaching assistant (2014-2017).

Field course in Oceanography (GEOF332), Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Norway.   Teaching assistant (2014).

Winter School on Sea Ice Variability in the Arctic, Tromsø, Norway. Invited lecturer (2014).   

International polar field school, Svalbard, Norway. Invited lecturer (2009).

 

 

Academic article

Lecture

Conference poster

Academic book chapter

Conference lecture

Journal corrigendum

Popular science article

Media feature article

Radio or TV participation

Media interview

Academic literature review

Doctoral thesis (PhD)

Research report

Professional article

1. Dörr, J. S., Mans, C. J., Årthun, M., Döös, K., Evans, D. G., and He, Y. (2026). The Arctic overturning circulation: transformations, pathways and timescales, Ocean Sci., 22, 565–585,  
2. Roewer, S., Fiedler, L., Årthun, M., Huiskamp, W., and Rahmstorf, S. (2026). Nordic overturning increases as AMOC weakens in response to global warming, Ocean Sci., 22, 1195–1211,  
3. Årthun, M., A. Brakstad, J. Dörr, H. L. Johnson, C. Mans, S. Semper, K. Våge (2025). Atlantification drives recent strengthening of the Arctic overturning circulation. Science Advances, 11, eadu1794.   
4. Chafik, L., M. Årthun, H. R. Langehaug, J. Nilsson, T. Rossby (2025). The Nordic Seas overturning is modulated by northward-propagating thermohaline anomalies. Communications Earth & Environment 6, 573.
5. Årthun, M. et al. (2025). The future Barents Sea—A synthesis of physical, biogeochemical, and ecological changes toward 2050 and 2100. Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, 13 (1): 00046.
6. Passos, L., H. R. Langehaug, M. Årthun, and F. Straneo (2024). On the relation between thermohaline anomalies and water mass transformation in the Eastern Subpolar North Atlantic. J. Climate,
7. Bonan, D. B., Dörr, J., Wills, R. C. J., Thompson, A. F., and Årthun, M. (2024). Sources of low-frequency variability in observed Antarctic sea ice, The Cryosphere, 18, 2141–2159,
8. Onarheim, I. H., Årthun, M., Teigen, S. H., Eik, K. J., & Steele, M. (2024). Recent thickening of the Barents Sea ice cover. Geophysical Research Letters, 51, e2024GL108225.
9. Dörr, J., Årthun, M., Eldevik, T., & Sandø, A. B. (2024). Expanding influence of Atlantic and Pacific Ocean heat transport on winter sea-ice variability in a warming Arctic. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 129, e2023JC019900.
10. Dörr, J., Årthun, M., Docquier, D., Li, C., & Eldevik, T. (2024). Causal links between sea-ice variability in the Barents-Kara Seas and oceanic and atmospheric drivers. Geophysical Research Letters, 51, e2024GL108195.
11. Årthun, M. (2023). Surface-forced variability in the Nordic Seas overturning circulation and overflows. Geophysical Research Letters, 50, e2023GL104158.
12. Dörr, J. S., Bonan, D. B., Årthun, M., Svendsen, L., and Wills, R. C. J. (2023). Forced and internal components of observed Arctic sea-ice changes, The Cryosphere, 17, 4133–4153,
13. Gerland, S., ..., Årthun, M., et al. (2023). Still Arctic?—The changing Barents Sea. Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene; 11 (1): 00088. doi:
14. Asbjørnsen, H., & Årthun, M. (2023). Deconstructing future AMOC decline at 26.5°N. Geophysical Research Letters, 50, e2023GL103515.
15. Årthun, M., Asbjørnsen, H., Chafik, L. et al. Future strengthening of the Nordic Seas overturning circulation. Nat Commun 14, 2065 (2023).
16. Fransner, F., Olsen, A., Årthun, M. et al. Phytoplankton abundance in the Barents Sea is predictable up to five years in advance. Commun Earth Environ 4, 141 (2023).
17. Rieke, O., Årthun, M., and Dörr, J. S.: Rapid sea ice changes in the future Barents Sea, The Cryosphere, 17, 1445–1456, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1445-2023, 2023
18. Passos, L., Langehaug, H.R., Årthun, M. et al. Impact of initialization methods on the predictive skill in NorCPM: an Arctic–Atlantic case study. Clim Dyn 60, 2061–2080 (2023)
19. Shu, Q., Wang, Q., Årthun, M., Wang, S., Song, Z., Zhang, M., & Qiao, F. (2022). Arctic Ocean Amplification in a warming climate in CMIP6 models. Science advances, 8(30), eabn9755
20. Langehaug, H. R., Ortega, P., Counillon, F., Matei, D., Maroon, E., Keenlyside, N., ... & Årthun, M. (2022). Propagation of Thermohaline Anomalies and their predictive potential along the Atlantic water pathway. Journal of Climate, 35(7), 2111-2131
21. Efstathiou, E., Eldevik, T., Årthun, M., & Lind, S. (2022). Spatial Patterns, Mechanisms, and Predictability of Barents Sea Ice Change. Journal of Climate, 35(10), 2961-2973.
22. Smedsrud, L. H., Muilwijk, M., Brakstad, A., Madonna, E., Lauvset, S. K., Spensberger, C., ... & Årthun, M. (2022). Nordic Seas heat loss, Atlantic inflow, and Arctic sea ice cover over the last century. Reviews of Geophysics, 60(1), e2020RG000725
23. Dörr, J., M. Årthun, T. Eldevik, E. Madonna (2021). Mechanisms of regional winter sea-ice variability in a warming Arctic. Journal of Climate, 34(21), 8635-8653.
24. Koul, V., C. Sguotti, M. Årthun et al. (2021). Skilful prediction of cod stocks in the North and Barents Sea a decade in advance. Communication Earth & Environment, 2, 140.
25. Asbjørnsen, H., H.L. Johnson, M. Årthun (2021). Variable Nordic Seas Inflow Linked to Shifts in North Atlantic Circulation. Journal of Climate, 34(17), 7057-7071.
26. Årthun, M., Wills, R. C., Johnson, H. L., Chafik, L., & Langehaug, H. R. (2021). Mechanisms of decadal North Atlantic climate variability and implications for the recent cold anomaly. Journal of Climate, 34(9), 3421-3439.
27. Årthun, M., Onarheim, I. H., Dörr, J., & Eldevik, T.. (2021). The seasonal and regional transition to an ice‐free Arctic. Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2020GC009054. 
28. Skagseth, Ø., Eldevik, T., Årthun, M., Asbjørnsen, H., Lien, V. S., & Smedsrud, L. H. (2020). Reduced efficiency of the Barents Sea cooling machine. Nature Climate Change, 1-6.
29. Asbjørnsen, H., Årthun, M., Skagseth, Ø., & Eldevik, T. (2020). Mechanisms Underlying Recent Arctic Atlantification. Geophysical Research Letters, 47(15), e2020GL088036.
30. Paasche, Øyvind, et al. "Addressing Arctic Challenges Requires a Synoptic Ocean Survey." Eos: Earth & Space Science News 100 (2019).
31. Årthun, M., Eldevik, T., & Smedsrud, L. H. (2019). The role of Atlantic heat transport in future Arctic winter sea ice loss. Journal of Climate, 32(11), 3327-3341
32. Asbjørnsen, H., Årthun, M., Skagseth, Ø., & Eldevik, T. (2019). Mechanisms of ocean heat anomalies in the Norwegian Sea. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 124(4), 2908-2923
33. Langehaug, H. R., Sandø, A. B., Årthun, M., & Ilıcak, M. (2019). Variability along the Atlantic water pathway in the forced Norwegian Earth System Model. Climate Dynamics, 1-20.
34. Heuzé, C. & Årthun, M. (2019). The Atlantic inflow across the Greenland-Scotland ridge in global climate models (CMIP5). Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, 7.
35. Årthun, M., Bogstad, B., Daewel, U., Keenlyside, N. S., Sandø, A. B., Schrum, C., & Ottersen, G. (2018). Climate based multi-year predictions of the Barents Sea cod stock. PloS one, 13(10), e0206319.
36. Kolstad, E. W., & Årthun, M. (2018). Seasonal Prediction from Arctic Sea Surface Temperatures: Opportunities and Pitfalls. Journal of Climate, 31(20), 8197-8210.
37. Årthun, M., E. W. Kolstad, T. Eldevik, N. S. Keenlyside, 2018. Time scales and sources of European temperature variability. Geophysical Research Letters. doi: 10.1002/2018gl077401
38. Onarheim, I. H., and M. Årthun (2017), Toward an ice-free Barents Sea, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 8387–8395.
39. Årthun, M., T. Eldevik, E. Viste, H. Drange, T. Furevik, H. L. Johnsson, N. S. Keenlyside, 2017. Skillful prediction of northern climate provided by the ocean. Nature Communications 8.
40. Årthun, M and T. Eldevik, 2016. On anomalous ocean heat transport toward the Arctic and associated climate predictability. Journal of Climate, 29, 689-704.
41. Boehme, L., Baker, A., Fedak, M., Årthun, M., Nicholls, K., Robinson, P., ... & Photopoulou, T. (2016). Bimodal winter haul-out patterns of adult Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii) in the Southern Weddell Sea. PloS one, 11(5), e0155817
42. Onarheim, I. H., T. Eldevik, M. Årthun, R. B. Ingvaldsen, L. H. Smedsrud, 2015. Skillful prediction of Barents Sea ice cover. Geophysical Research Letters 42 (13), 5364-5371.
43. Darelius, E., Strand, K. O., Østerhus, S., Gammeslrød, T., Årthun, M., & Fer, I. (2014). On the seasonal signal of the Filchner overflow, Weddell Sea, Antarctica. Journal of physical oceanography, 44(4), 1230-1243.
44. Årthun, M., P. R. Holland, K. W. Nicholls, D. L. Feltham 2013. Eddy-driven exchange between the open ocean and a sub-ice shelf cavity. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 43, 2372-2387.
45. Årthun, M., K. W. Nicholls, L. Boehme 2013. Wintertime water mass modification near an Antarctic Ice Front. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 43, 359-365.
46. Barthel, K., Daewel, U., Pushpadas, D., Schrum, C., Årthun, M., H. Wehde 2012. Resolving frontal structures: on the payoff using a less diffusive but computationally more expensive advection scheme. Ocean Dynamics, 62, 1457-1470.
47. Årthun, M., K. W. Nicholls, K. Makinson, M. A. Fedak, L. Boehme 2012. Seasonal inflow of warm water onto the southern Weddell Sea continental shelf, Antarctica. Geophysical Research Letters, 39, L17601.
48. Årthun, M., T. Eldevik, L. H. Smedsrud, Ø. Skagseth, R. B. Ingvaldsen, 2012. Quantifying the influence of Atlantic heat on Barents Sea ice variability and retreat. Journal of Climate, 25, 4736-4743.
49. Årthun, M., R. G. J. Bellerby, A. Omar, C. Schrum., 2012. Spatiotemporal variability of air-sea CO2 fluxes in the Barents Sea, as determined by empirical relationships and modelled hydrography. Journal of Marine Systems, 98-99, 40-50.
50. Årthun, M., R. B. Ingvaldsen, L. H. Smedsrud, C. Schrum., 2011. Dense water formation and circulation in the Barents Sea. Deep Sea Research I, 58(8), 801-817.
51. Årthun, M. and C. Schrum., 2010. Ocean surface heat flux variability in the Barents Sea. Journal of Marine Systems 83, 88-98.

Ongoing projects:

Polhavet 2050, WP-leader, 2026-2035,  

Overturning circulation in the new Arctic (ArMOC), Project leader, 2023-2027,  

 

Previous projects:

Arven etter Nansen, WP-leader (https://arvenetternansen.com/).

Bjerknes Climate Prediction Unit, WP-leader (https://bjerknes.uib.no/en/project/bjerknes-climate-prediction-unit).

Dynamics of the North Atlantic surface and overturning circulation (DYNASOR), WP-leader

Pathways, processes, and impacts of poleward ocean heat transport (PATHWAY), Project leader

Blue-Action: Arctic Impact on Weather and Climate (http://www.blue-action.eu/)

Predictability of Arctic/North Atlantic climate (PRACTICE)

Seasonal Forcasting Engine